Lab · Strategy backtest
Would trading by the rules have beaten simply holding?
TSLA over 730d: simply holding (+53.2%) beat all five methods.
Best method: MACD golden/death cross (+38.4%). Steadiest: RSI 30/70 (max drawdown -27.0% vs holding -53.8%). S&P 500 over the same span: +35.3%.All 5 methods at once
Click a row to switch the chart and trades below
| Method | Total return | Annualized | Max drawdown | Time in market | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy and hold Buy at start, hold to end | +53.2% | +23.8% | -53.8% | 100% | - |
| MACD golden/death cross Trend following | +38.4% | +17.7% | -31.8% | 47% | 23 |
| S&P 500 Index hold (benchmark) | +35.3% | +16.4% | -18.8% | 100% | - |
| RSI 30/70 Mean reversion | +35.2% | +16.3% | -27.0% | 25% | 2 |
| BB lower/upper Mean reversion | +26.9% | +12.7% | -38.5% | 55% | 5 |
| Ichimoku cloud breakout Trend following | +0.3% | +0.2% | -32.0% | 47% | 14 |
| SMA 50/200 golden/death cross Trend following | -18.1% | -9.5% | -29.9% | 33% | 2 |
Equity curve
Growth of 1 · bold line = RSI 30/70
BB lower/upperMACD golden/death crossRSI 30/70SMA 50/200 golden/death crossIchimoku cloud breakout Buy and hold S&P 500 Buy Sell
RSI 30/70 trades
Buy when 14-day RSI drops below 30 (oversold), sell above 70 (overbought). Aims at short-term rebounds.
#2 2026-07-24 Buy $320.72 → Open +20.0%103d
#1 2025-02-26 Buy $303.71 → 2025-05-14 Sell $342.50 +12.7%77d
Filled at next day's open after a signal · 0.1% round-trip cost · dividends included (adjusted prices) · open positions marked at the last close · past results do not guarantee future returns