Lab · Strategy backtest
Would trading by the rules have beaten simply holding?
TSLA over 5Y: MACD golden/death cross (+227.8%) beat simply holding (-7.6%).
Best method: MACD golden/death cross (+227.8%). Steadiest: MACD golden/death cross (max drawdown -43.6% vs holding -73.0%). S&P 500 over the same span: +66.8%.All 5 methods at once
Click a row to switch the chart and trades below
| Method | Total return | Annualized | Max drawdown | Time in market | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MACD golden/death cross Trend following | +227.8% | +26.8% | -43.6% | 51% | 49 |
| BB lower/upper Mean reversion | +78.6% | +12.3% | -62.5% | 52% | 17 |
| S&P 500 Index hold (benchmark) | +66.8% | +10.8% | -24.5% | 100% | - |
| RSI 30/70 Mean reversion | +55.7% | +9.3% | -52.7% | 40% | 6 |
| Ichimoku cloud breakout Trend following | +7.5% | +1.5% | -46.7% | 52% | 31 |
| Buy and hold Buy at start, hold to end | -7.6% | -1.6% | -73.0% | 100% | - |
| SMA 50/200 golden/death cross Trend following | -34.9% | -8.2% | -57.7% | 40% | 4 |
Equity curve
Growth of 1 · bold line = RSI 30/70
BB lower/upperMACD golden/death crossRSI 30/70SMA 50/200 golden/death crossIchimoku cloud breakout Buy and hold S&P 500 Buy Sell
RSI 30/70 trades
Buy when 14-day RSI drops below 30 (oversold), sell above 70 (overbought). Aims at short-term rebounds.
#6 2026-07-24 Buy $320.72 → Open +11.6%105d
#5 2025-02-26 Buy $303.71 → 2025-05-14 Sell $342.50 +12.7%77d
#4 2023-08-18 Buy $214.12 → 2024-07-02 Sell $218.89 +2.1%319d
#3 2023-04-27 Buy $152.64 → 2023-05-31 Sell $199.78 +30.8%34d
#2 2022-10-10 Buy $223.93 → 2023-01-30 Sell $178.05 -20.6%112d
#1 2022-05-13 Buy $257.83 → 2022-08-01 Sell $301.28 +16.7%80d
Filled at next day's open after a signal · 0.1% round-trip cost · dividends included (adjusted prices) · open positions marked at the last close · past results do not guarantee future returns