JOLTS Job Openings
A comprehensive indicator showing U.S. labor market job openings, quits, and hires
What is JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)?
In one line: JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) is a monthly report that gives a complete picture of the U.S. labor market, showing Job Openings, Hires, Quits, and Layoffs.
If NFP shows the "result" of employment, JOLTs shows the "process and demand" behind it. It is also the employment indicator most frequently cited by Fed Chair Powell.
JOLTs is a monthly report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) since 2000. Its official name is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. It is based on a survey of about 21,000 businesses and government agencies.
What makes this report special is that it shows the "demand side" of the labor market. NFP tells you "how many jobs were added last month (the result)," but JOLTs shows the many dynamics of the labor market in three dimensions: "how many people companies are looking to hire right now (demand)," "whether people are voluntarily leaving their jobs (confidence)," and "how many companies are laying off workers (restructuring)."
Especially during the inflation period of 2022–2024, Fed Chair Powell directly cited JOLTs data several times at press conferences, which greatly raised the market's attention on this report. The logic was: "If job openings don't come down, the labor market isn't cooling, and it will be hard to tame inflation."
English terms
JOLTs, Job Openings, JOLTS Report, Labor Turnover
Korean terms
JOLTs job openings, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, labor turnover survey
What does it measure?
The JOLTs report is like a "complete dashboard" that shows multiple aspects of the labor market at the same time. Let's look at each main component one by one.
1. Job Openings
The number of unfilled, empty jobs as of the last business day of the month. It's the total number of positions that companies have posted and are actively trying to fill. A high number means strong hiring demand from companies, while a low number means companies are less willing to hire. This is the headline number in JOLTs that the market watches most closely.
2. Hires
The number of people actually hired during the month. If job openings are "demand," hires are "demand that became reality." If there are many job openings but few hires, it can mean companies can't find the talent they want (a skills mismatch).
3. Quits
The number of workers who voluntarily left their job. This is the most interesting piece of data in JOLTs: people usually quit on their own when better jobs are out there, that is, when they are confident in the labor market.
So a high Quits Rate means workers feel "I can leave and quickly find another job," while a low rate means "I'd better hold on to my current job" — anxiety is growing. You can think of it as a kind of "worker confidence index."
4. Layoffs & Discharges
The number of workers a company let go involuntarily. This includes people laid off due to restructuring, poor results, or business downsizing. A sharp jump in this number is a clear warning sign that companies are struggling. Fortunately, since the 2020 COVID period, this number has stayed relatively low.
How does BLS collect this data?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) sends a monthly survey to about 21,000 non-farm businesses and government agencies. It asks things like: "How many job openings did you have this month?", "How many people did you hire?", "How many people quit voluntarily?", and "How many people did you lay off?"
The survey data is tallied by industry and region to produce a national estimate. However, because it's survey-based, it can be affected by response rates and sampling errors, and revisions are sometimes made after release.
Key distinctions: all you need to know
To read JOLTs data properly, you need to understand two key indicators: the Job Openings per Unemployed ratio and the Quits Rate.
Job Openings / Unemployed Ratio
The ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed people. This is the most important derived indicator in JOLTs.
Ratio > 1.0: There are more open jobs than unemployed people. It's a "job-seeker's market" with plenty of choices. The labor market is tight, so wage pressure is high.
Ratio around 1.0: Open jobs and unemployed people are roughly equal — a "balanced" state. This is the level the Fed ideally wants to see.
Ratio < 1.0: There are more unemployed people than open jobs. It's an "employer's market" where finding work is hard and wage pressure is weak. This is the pattern seen in recessions.
Historical path of the ratio
2019 (pre-COVID): About 1.2x — a healthy labor market
March 2022 (peak): About 2.0x — twice as many open jobs as unemployed people! All-time high
Late 2024: About 1.1–1.2x — down sharply from the peak, approaching balance
2009 (financial crisis): About 0.16x — 1 open job for every 6 unemployed people. A dark era for job seekers.
Quits Rate
The share of voluntary quitters out of total employment. It's a worker sentiment indicator that shows "how confidently people are switching jobs."
High quits rate (2.5% or above): "I can leave and find a new job quickly" → high worker confidence → demands for higher pay when switching jobs → wage inflation pressure
Low quits rate (2.0% or below): "I need to hold on to my current job" → rising worker anxiety → possible slowdown in spending → economic slowdown signal
Why the Fed pays special attention to JOLTs
Throughout 2022–2024, Chair Powell repeatedly mentioned JOLTs at his press conferences. The core logic goes like this:
"Job openings are high → companies can't find workers → they have to raise wages → wage inflation → prices keep rising"
The Fed's ideal scenario is "job openings fall, but layoffs don't rise." In other words, companies slow down new hiring to gradually cool the labor market, but without mass layoffs — achieving a "soft landing." This scenario was largely realized in 2023–2024, drawing cheers from the market.
Why does it matter?
JOLTs has grown sharply in importance in recent years for one simple reason: it's the employment indicator the Fed chair cites most often. Chair Powell has repeatedly stressed the logic that "to tame inflation, labor market demand (job openings) has to fall first."
High job openings = labor market overheating → risk of persistent inflation
High job openings mean companies are still desperate for workers. In this situation:
1) Companies have to raise wages to attract talent
2) Higher labor costs get passed on to product/service prices
3) A "wage-price spiral" takes shape
Result: The Fed keeps rates high or considers further hikes → Treasury yields rise, growth stocks under pressure
Falling job openings = labor market cooling → inflation slowdown expected
Falling job openings mean companies are less eager to hire. In this situation:
1) Wage pressure eases
2) Inflation is more likely to slow down
3) An environment is created where the Fed can consider rate cuts
Result: Rate cut expectations rise → Treasury yields fall, growth stocks (Nasdaq) rebound. But if job openings fall too sharply, worries like "is a recession coming?" can also emerge.
Real-world examples of market reactions
March–July 2022 — Job openings peak (12 million)
Job openings hit an all-time high of 12 million, pushing the ratio to 2.0x. The Fed used this as grounds to launch aggressive rate hikes (consecutive 0.75 percentage point hikes). The logic: "There's no way inflation gets tamed while the labor market is this hot."
August 2024 — Job openings plunge (7.7 million)
Job openings fell to 7.7 million, back to early-2021 levels, sending a clear cooling signal. This data became one of the key reasons for the Fed's September rate cut (a big 0.50 percentage point cut!). On the day of release, Treasury yields fell and the stock market rose.
February 2025 — Job openings rebound (7.7M → 8.2M)
A rebound that beat expectations revived concerns that "the labor market hasn't cooled yet." Rate cut expectations faded, Treasury yields rose, and tech stocks weakened.
The link between quits and consumer spending: A high quits rate means people are moving to better-paying jobs, which increases their spending power. Conversely, when the quits rate drops sharply, people feel insecure in their current jobs and start tightening their wallets. In 2024, the quits rate fell to 2.1–2.2%, below the pre-COVID level of 2.3%, which raised concerns about a consumer slowdown.
Release schedule and how to check it
Release frequency
Every first Tuesday of the month (the start of Employment Week). However, unlike NFP and ADP, it reports data from two months ago, so there is a roughly two-month delay.
Release time (Korea Standard Time)
10:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time (later than NFP and ADP)
= 11:00 PM KST during U.S. daylight saving time (March–November)
= Midnight 00:00 KST during U.S. standard time (November–March)
Data lag — 2-month delay
The biggest limitation of JOLTs is that it shows data from two months ago. For example, JOLTs released in the first week of April shows February data.
Because of this lag, critics say, "Even if JOLTs looks good, that's a story from two months ago." But the trend in job openings doesn't change drastically in just one or two months, so it's still useful for reading the direction of the labor market.
Publisher
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — the same agency that publishes NFP. JOLTs runs as a separate BLS program and collects its data through an independent survey, separate from the NFP (establishment survey).
Full Employment Week (Jobs Week) schedule
JOLTs kicks off Employment Week when it is released on the first Tuesday of every month.
Tuesday: JOLTs job openings (data from two months ago) — labor demand
Wednesday: ADP private employment (data from last month) — preview of private hiring
Thursday: Weekly jobless claims — layoff trends
Friday: NFP employment report (data from last month) — the final comprehensive view
Practical strategies for investors
How can you use JOLTs data for investing? Even with a two-month lag, reading the "trend" can help you move ahead of other investors.
Strategy 1: Use the ratio trend to predict the direction of rates
Key principle: When the job openings/unemployed ratio falls, a rate cut is getting closer.
Ratio above 1.5x → labor market overheating → Fed keeps/tightens policy → bonds weak, growth stocks under pressure. Ratio around 1.0–1.2x → approaching balance → sets the stage for Fed rate cuts → bonds stronger, growth stocks benefit.
Practical tip: If the ratio falls for three consecutive months, the next Fed rate cut is more likely to come sooner. Checking it together with the CME FedWatch tool can improve the accuracy of your rate forecasts.
Strategy 2: Use the quits rate to gauge consumer sentiment
Key principle: The quits rate is a direct thermometer of worker confidence.
High quits rate (2.3% or above) → people are switching to better jobs → more spending power → consumer discretionary (XLY), leisure/travel sectors benefit. Low quits rate (2.0% or below) → people cling to their current jobs → spending slowdown risk → consumer staples (XLP), defensive stocks benefit.
Practical tip: Look at the quits rate together with the Consumer Confidence Index. When both fall at the same time, the consumer slowdown signal is very strong. This can affect retail-related stocks (Amazon, Walmart).
Strategy 3: Use industry-level job opening trends for sector investing
Key principle: The trend in job openings for a specific industry can give you an early read on whether that sector is growing or shrinking.
Rising healthcare job openings → healthcare stocks (UNH, HCA) benefit. Falling professional/business services openings → caution on IT/consulting. Rising construction openings → positive for housing/construction-related stocks.
Practical tip: Looking at JOLTs industry-level data over a 3–6 month trend can help you predict NFP's industry-level employment changes ahead of time. Industries where job openings are rising are likely to add jobs later.
Strategy 4: Use JOLTs as a leading signal for NFP
Key principle: The trend in job openings shows up in NFP 3–6 months later.
If job openings are falling for three months in a row, NFP is likely to slow down in the coming months. That's because when companies cut back on job postings, actual hiring (NFP) follows. Conversely, a rebound in job openings is a leading signal of an NFP improvement.
Practical tip: Remember this chain: "Job openings trend falls → NFP slows 3–6 months later → rate cut expectations rise → increase exposure to bonds/growth stocks." This pattern has historically been highly reliable.
Relationship with other indicators
To understand JOLTs better, you need to know how it relates to other employment indicators. JOLTs complements the others to paint a fuller picture of the labor market.
NFP non-farm payrolls (employment result)
While JOLTs shows the "demand and process" in the labor market, NFP shows the "final result." Historically, when JOLTs job openings start to fall, NFP also slows 3–6 months later. Looking at both together lets you predict "how today's hiring demand will show up in future employment results."
Unemployment Rate
The ratio of job openings to unemployed people (the openings-to-unemployed ratio) is a key measure of how tight the labor market is. When the ratio is high, the unemployment rate is likely to stay low; when it falls below 1.0, the unemployment rate starts to climb. The relationship between the two is analyzed using an economics model called the Beveridge Curve.
ADP private employment (private-sector hiring change)
While JOLTs shows "how much companies want to hire (demand)," ADP shows "how much they actually hired (result)" in the private sector. If JOLTs job openings fall but ADP is still strong, it means hiring from existing postings is active. If both are weak, the labor-market slowdown signal becomes very strong.
Initial jobless claims (weekly layoff trends)
Can be compared with JOLTs' Layoffs data. However, JOLTs is two months old while jobless claims are only about 5 days old, so the gap is large. Use jobless claims for the latest layoff trends and JOLTs openings/quits data to read structural changes in the labor market — they complement each other.
Connection to FOMC rate decisions
The employment indicator Chair Powell cites most often at his press conferences is JOLTs. "Job openings still high" means tightening stays in place; "job openings have fallen meaningfully" sets the stage for rate cuts. Right after JOLTs is released, you can see rate probabilities on CME FedWatch shift immediately. In particular, JOLTs released two weeks before an FOMC meeting has a big impact on market rate expectations.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q. What does JOLTs stand for?
A. It stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. It literally means "a survey of job openings and labor turnover." The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has run this monthly survey since 2000, covering about 21,000 businesses and collecting data on job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs. It is the only indicator that gives a complete view of the "demand side" of the labor market.
Q. Why is JOLTs released with a two-month delay?
A. Because BLS has to collect surveys from 21,000 businesses, tally the responses, apply seasonal adjustments, and run quality checks — all of which takes considerable time. NFP is released about 2–3 weeks after the reference month, but JOLTs surveys many more items (openings, hires, quits, layoffs), so processing takes longer. This delay is JOLTs' biggest limitation, but since the trend in job openings doesn't change drastically in just one or two months, it is still valid for judging the direction of the labor market.
Q. Why is the Quits Rate important?
A. People usually quit voluntarily only when they are confident a better job is waiting. That makes the quits rate a sentiment indicator that shows "how confident workers are in the labor market." A high quits rate means people demand higher pay when switching jobs, adding to wage inflation; a low quits rate means people hold on to their jobs and consumer spending slows. During the 2021–2022 "Great Resignation," the quits rate reached 3%, hitting an all-time high.
Q. How does the Fed use JOLTs?
A. The Fed, and Chair Powell in particular, uses JOLTs job openings as a key measure of labor market tightness. The logic is: "High job openings → labor shortage → rising wages → persistent inflation → keep policy tight." Throughout 2022–2024, Chair Powell repeated at press conferences that "job openings need to fall for the labor market to find balance and for inflation to stabilize." As job openings dropped from 12 million (2022) to 7.7 million (2024), the Fed's rate-cutting cycle began.
Q. What is the difference between JOLTs and NFP?
A. Both are employment data published by BLS, but they look at very different angles. NFP shows "how many jobs were added last month (the result)," while JOLTs shows "how many people companies are trying to hire (demand)" and "why people are leaving their jobs (reasons)." To use an analogy, NFP is the "game result (scoreboard)," while JOLTs is the "game process (shots taken, possession, fouls)." Their timing also differs: NFP reports data for the previous month, while JOLTs reports data for the month before that.
Q. What happens if the ratio (job openings/unemployed) falls below 1.0?
A. A ratio below 1.0 means there are more unemployed people than open jobs. It becomes an "employer's market" where job seekers must compete. Historically, at this level, wage pressure weakens, consumer spending contracts, and recession worries grow. During the 2009 financial crisis, the ratio fell as low as 0.16 (1 open job for every 6 unemployed people). Currently (2024–2025), however, the ratio is around 1.1–1.2, still above 1.0, which supports the "soft landing" scenario.