On July 29, New York stocks saw all three major indexes decline. The Dow fell 2.19%, the Nasdaq 1.74%, and the S&P 500 1.52%, while the volatility index (VIX) climbed to 20.58. By sector, energy gained 1.88% on the back of higher oil prices, while industrials dropped 3.19% and technology fell 2.64%. A wave of selling in chipmakers led the decline, with KLA plunging 10.8% and Micron tumbling 10.07%.

Futures are attempting a rebound across all three major indexes with gains of 0.1–0.2%, though the strength is weak. Yesterday the Federal Reserve held rates steady, but three members dissented in favor of a hike, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield above 5.2% to its highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, additional U.S. airstrikes on Iran lifted oil prices, leaving risk-off sentiment in place. Microsoft gained 8.88% in after-hours trading, partially easing skepticism over artificial intelligence investment. Today's biggest variable is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index due at 9:30 p.m. Korea time.

This was released earlier this morning. The upper bound of the federal funds rate was held at 3.75% as expected, but the move was read as hawkish because three members cast dissenting votes for a 0.25 percentage point hike. Long-term Treasury yields jumped on the news, which became the starting point for yesterday's U.S. equity selloff.

The market consensus is 2.1%, in line with the prior reading. A significantly stronger print would signal a resilient economy but, in the current environment, could also be read as a factor raising the odds of further rate hikes.

The consensus is 3.7%, down from 4.1% previously. This is the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve watches most closely. A slowdown in line with expectations could ease some of the upward pressure on yields seen yesterday.

The consensus is -0.1%, a sharp deceleration from 0.4% previously. It would indicate that prices essentially stalled over the past month, so any print meaningfully above this level could trigger disappointment selling.

Consensus is 3.3%, versus 3.4% previously. The core reading strips out the more volatile energy and food components and is used to gauge the underlying trend in inflation. With oil prices jumping, this figure is more important than the headline number.

Consensus is 0.2%, versus 0.3% previously. If this trajectory holds, annual inflation moves closer to the 2% target. A print of 0.3% or higher could lift the probability of a September rate hike.

This measures the change in consumer spending itself. Consensus is 0.3%, versus 0.7% previously. Combined with the inflation data, it shows how much consumer activity has cooled.

Consensus is 200,000 claims, versus 180,000 previously. The labor market remains relatively resilient. A significantly higher-than-expected print would be read as a sign of economic slowdown.

Amazon's Relative Strength Index (RSI, a momentum indicator that measures overbought and oversold conditions on a scale from 0 to 100) has fallen to 33.3, breaking below the lower Bollinger Band (a statistically derived band that charts the range within which a stock typically trades). Shares are down 1.82% at $226.65, and with earnings due after today's close, this is a setup where a technical oversold signal meets a fundamental catalyst.

Tesla has the lowest RSI among today's candidates at 25.4. Shares fell 2.97% to $298.32. Readings below 30 are typically interpreted as a signal of an excessive short-term decline. However, the indicator only flags that the drop has been excessive; it does not signal when a reversal will occur.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company plunged 4.5% to $374.67, breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, with an RSI of 34.2. It is a key stock to watch to see whether the selling that began yesterday in equipment names such as KLA and Applied Materials has spread to the foundry segment.

Stay calm today, and have a great day.