On the surface, yesterday's New York market looked quiet, but underneath the indices told very different stories. While the Dow rose 0.51%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.18%. Consumer staples gained 1.46% and consumer discretionary added 1.31%, while energy dropped 2.11%. Nvidia fell 4.99%, Advanced Micro Devices slid 5.17% and ASML plunged 5.8%, dragging the tech sector lower and pushing the volatility index up to 18.76.

Futures pointed in opposite directions. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.9% while Dow futures ticked up 0.1%. It is less that the entire market is gripped by fear and more that capital is rotating out of AI semiconductors into other sectors. Reports that Nvidia is in talks to guarantee OpenAI's $250 billion in debt, combined with the KOSPI's 10.84% plunge, concentrated selling pressure in a single semiconductor pocket. The biggest swing factor today is the earnings slate that kicks off with Boeing at 9:00 p.m. Korea time and rolls on from there.

This is a monthly consumer-sentiment indicator published by the Conference Board, a US private economic-research organization. The current forecast is 92.3, a slight improvement from the prior reading of 91.2. The survey asks consumers how they view the economy and the job market ahead, and it is used as an early read on the temperature of US consumption, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy.

The release comes 30 minutes after the regular session opens. A print above expectations would signal that the economy is holding up, which is welcome news, but in a phase where inflation is heating up again it can also be read as a reason to push back rate-cut expectations. With the Fed's rate decision scheduled for early the next morning, this single indicator is unlikely to set the market's direction on its own, and its impact is likely to be limited today, overshadowed by semiconductor selling and earnings catalysts.

ASML closed yesterday with a 5.8% plunge, breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, a band that shows the range within which a stock typically moves. Its Relative Strength Index, an indicator that shows whether a stock is overbought or oversold on a scale of 0 to 100, sat at 41.1, still short of oversold territory, leaving room for further downside if negative news around Chinese lithography equipment continues.

Tesla's Relative Strength Index dropped to 27.3, putting it in oversold territory, and it also slipped below the lower Bollinger Band. $309.23 is a level worth watching for a technical bounce, but when both signals appear at the same time, the decline often extends further.

On the other side stands JPMorgan Chase. Its Relative Strength Index of 70.1 has taken it into overbought territory and broken above the upper Bollinger Band, a direct reflection of the rotation of capital out of semiconductors and into banks. That said, $356.20 is flashing a short-term overheat signal.

Stay calm today, and have a great day.