Fear Index (^VIX) monthly avg. 17.1 · intraday high 20.88 (normal range 14~16)

The US market in July painted different pictures by index. The Dow Jones rose +0.37% and the S&P 500 a modest +0.17%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell -5.13% on its own, and the Russell 2000 of small- and mid-caps dropped -2.71%. A gap of more than 5 percentage points between indexes means the market did not move as one; rather, capital changed seats inside it. In fact, funds exiting AI-related semiconductors migrated into energy, financials, and consumer staples. The Fear Index (VIX, a measure of market anxiety that normally sits at 14~16) posted a monthly average of 17.10 and an intraday high of 20.88 before closing at 15.99, suggesting mid-month jitters faded by month-end. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq 100 still leads at +12.14% and the Russell 2000 at +18.51%, indicating that July's pullback was largely a give-back of prior gains.

Bonds, the Dollar, and Commodities — Oil Shook Rates and the Dollar

Asset← Decline · Rise →Monthly Return

IEF 10-Year Treasury−1.15%

DX-Y.NYB Dollar−1.57%

GLD Gold+0.25%

USO Crude Oil+25.08%

Crude oil drove the asset complex. Oil surged +25.08%, as the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the ongoing standoff over Iran pushed prices toward the $100 per barrel mark. By contrast, the 10-Year Treasury fell -1.15%. A drop in bond prices means yields rose, as concerns that oil would reignite inflation dampened rate-cut expectations. The Dollar Index weakened -1.57%, while gold was essentially flat at +0.25%. In uneasy months, gold typically rises, but gold pays no interest, so its appeal diminishes when rates climb in tandem. Gold's stagnation this month reflects that offsetting tug.

2. Sector Rotation

Energy, last month's 10th-place finisher, leapt to 1st at +12.76%, while Industrials — last month's leader — slid to 10th at -1.92%.

XLE Energy↑ 10th→1st+12.76%

XLF Financials+3.94%

XLP Consumer Staples+2.10%

XLRE Real Estate+2.01%

XLV Healthcare+1.89%

XLU Utilities−0.94%

XLB Materials−1.16%

XLC Communication Services−1.37%

XLY Consumer Discretionary−1.69%

XLI Industrials↓ 1st→10th−1.92%

XLK Technology−5.53%

Energy's leap was a direct reflection of the oil surge. The remaining gainers — Financials (+3.94%), Consumer Staples (+2.10%), Real Estate (+2.01%), and Healthcare (+1.89%) — accounted for all of the month's positive sectors, while the other six ended in the red. At the bottom, Technology fell -5.53%, weighed down by concerns about AI investment costs and semiconductor selling pressure. It is also notable that Healthcare, last month's #2, slipped to 5th, and Utilities (-0.94%), last month's #3, fell to 6th. With indexes barely moving, the gap between 1st and 11th place exceeded 18 percentage points — summarizing the character of the month. It was not a month of broad market moves; it was a month in which location within the market decided performance.

The single data point that moved the market this month came at the start — the jobs report. Coming in at half expectations, the weak employment print actually eased rate-hike fears and propped up the indexes.

Top 10 monthly gainers and losers among large-caps with market cap of $20 billion or more.

📈 Top 10 Gainers

CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions+34.7%

THC Tenet Healthcare Group+33.3%

EQNR Equinor+31.7%

PYPL PayPal Holdings+29.8%

ACN Accenture+26.5%

JD JD.com+25.6%

SU Suncor Energy+25.6%

CBOE Cboe Global Markets+25.2%

BP BP+25.1%

BABA Alibaba+24.8%

📉 Top 10 Decliners

SNDK Sandisk−40.3%

RBLX Roblox−38.6%

GLW Corning−37.3%

GFS GlobalFoundries−35.3%

RKLB Rocket Lab−35.0%

MTZ MasTec−32.6%

ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals−31.9%

ASTS AST SpaceMobile−31.5%

KLAC KLA Corporation−31.3%

SPCX SpaceX−31.2%

Two profiles dominated the top of the gainers list. Energy names absorbed the oil surge (EQNR, SU, BP), alongside services and financials that delivered on earnings (THC, PYPL, CTSH, ACN, CBOE). On the losing side, declines clustered in semis and growth-oriented names tied to space and gaming (SNDK, GFS, KLAC, RKLB, ASTS, SPCX, RBLX). The notable point is that the decliners' earnings were not bad — GLW beat estimates by 3.5%, KLAC by 5.1%, and RBLX by 21.9%, yet all three fell more than 30%. Conversely, top gainer CTSH jumped +11.35% on its release day even while missing estimates by 0.7%. What divided stocks this month was not whether earnings were good or bad, but how much of the result was already priced in.

THC Tenet Healthcare Group — A Month's Worth of Gains in a Day

Earnings Surprise +43.5%Next Day +17.17%

THC reported on July 23, beating estimates by 43.5%. Shares jumped +17.17% the following day, accounting for roughly half of its monthly gain of +33.25%. With the broader healthcare sector up just +1.89% for the month, the move was driven by company-specific results rather than sector tailwinds.

RBLX Roblox — Beat Earnings, Lost a Quarter of Its Value

Earnings Surprise +21.9%Next Day -26.85%

RBLX reported on July 30, beating estimates by 21.9%. Yet the stock plunged -26.85% the next day, finishing the month down -38.57% to rank 2nd among decliners. It is the clearest illustration of the month's character — strong earnings do not guarantee a rising stock price.

Among 1,185 companies reporting in July, 74.9% beat market expectations while 24.6% missed; the average surprise came in at +6.06%. On paper, it was a solid quarter. By sector, beat rates were led by Industrials (85.3%), Technology (82.8%), Utilities (80.0%), and Healthcare (79.3%), with Real Estate (59.1%), Communication Services (62.5%), and Energy (63.5%) at the bottom. Yet stock prices moved the opposite way. Technology, with the second-highest beat rate, ended the month last at -5.53%, while Energy, with the third-lowest beat rate, finished first at +12.76%. For an entire month, the market kept reminding investors that beating expectations is not enough when the bar was set even higher.

At the index level, July was a quiet month for the US stock market. The S&P 500 rose +0.17% and the Dow +0.37%, essentially flat. But beneath the surface, one of the year's most notable capital rotations unfolded. While the Nasdaq 100 slid -5.13%, energy surged +12.76% and crude oil jumped +25.08%. The surface was calm, but the undercurrents ran fast.

That character was evident from the start. On July 1, the first trading day of the second half, Meta jumped 8.85% on news of a cloud-services push, while semiconductor names like Micron and Corning dropped by double digits on concerns about compute-capacity oversupply — a sharp rotation from AI semiconductors into software. The next day, July 2, June employment came in at 57K, half the consensus 110K. With rate-hike pressure receding, the market diverged: the Dow rose 1.14% to a new all-time high, while the Nasdaq fell and semis endured a second day of selling.

The back half of the first week brought a rebound. On July 6, the Dow closed above 53,000 for the first time, and the semiconductor index jumped 2.68% on dip-buying. On July 9, Micron's announcement of a $250 billion U.S. investment plan reignited the AI memory theme, and on July 10, SK Hynix surged 13% on its U.S. listing debut. At that point, the first-half's rally narrative appeared to be continuing uninterrupted.

What broke that momentum was the Middle East. On July 7, an oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil up more than 4%. On July 8, the U.S. and Iran declared the collapse of their ceasefire. On July 13, the Hormuz blockade resumed; on July 20, prices tested $90 per barrel; and on July 23, a Yemeni Houthi attack on an oil tanker pushed prices through $100. Oil headed higher for the entire month, and with each move, capital shifted into energy and financials while richly valued tech names gave up funds. The chain of events is the backdrop for energy rising from 10th place last month to 1st this month.

The second axis was the AI capex bill. On July 16, despite record earnings, TSMC's sharply higher capex plan was read by the market as a signal of capex-recovery anxiety rather than growth. The next day, a new AI model from China's Moonshot revived a so-called DeepSeek shock, and Netflix's slowing growth outlook compounded the pressure, dragging the Nasdaq down 1.40%. On the evening of July 22, Alphabet and Tesla confirmed larger capex in their results, and the next day the Nasdaq fell 2.15%. It was a phase in which rising capex itself — not deteriorating earnings — became the negative catalyst.

Even amid that backdrop, rebounds came repeatedly. On July 14, June CPI undershot estimates and Goldman Sachs delivered an earnings surprise, lifting all three major indexes together. On July 21, memory names like Sandisk and Micron rebounded 12~14%, breaking a three-day losing streak. Yet on July 15, the indexes rose while Micron and Dell plunged 8~10% — index gains and stock-level pain moved on separate tracks, a consistent feature of the month.

The most tense day was July 29. The Fed held rates steady, but three dissents favored a hike, and combined with Iran's threat of retaliation, all three major indexes fell. The Dow dropped 2.19% and the Fear Index crossed 20. Inflation and geopolitics collided on the same day.

The final two days brought a reversal. On July 30, news that Microsoft's Azure cloud revenue growth had accelerated to 43% sent semis up 8.63%, and the Nasdaq ended a six-day losing streak with a 2.78% gain. On July 31, Amazon reported cloud revenue growth of 36.7%, its fastest in 18 quarters. That said, Apple fell 7.35% the same day on a memory-shortage warning, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.73%, the highest since January 2025. A rebound came, but the burden remained.

The numerical thread running through the month was the sentiment gauge. The Fear & Greed Index stayed between 32 and 49 throughout July, never escaping Fear territory. Indexes sat still while investors stayed anxious — and that anxiety wore two names: oil prices and AI capex. Even with a 74.9% beat rate, tech finished last, because the market this month was engaged in re-rating expectations, not rerating earnings.

7. Key Items to Watch Next Month

August brings inflation data and the AI capex bill side by side; the key question is whether July's capital rotation reverses.

• 8/4 (Tue) AMD, Caterpillar, Merck earnings — AI semis and industrials report on the same day, offering a direct comparison of the two camps that diverged in July.
• 8/7 (Fri) July Jobs & Unemployment Rate — A check on whether the early-July 57K shock was a one-off. Another soft print would ease rate-hike worries but deepen recession concerns.
• 8/12 (Wed) July CPI — The first CPI print reflecting a month in which oil rose +25.08%. Among the month's data points, this is the most sensitive.
• 8/13 (Thu) Applied Materials earnings — A reading on memory capex cycle continuity through semiconductor equipment demand.
• 8/20 (Thu) PCE Inflation & Walmart earnings — The Fed's preferred inflation gauge and a consumer-health gauge land on the same day. Microsoft's ex-dividend date also falls here.

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The monthly report is published on the 1st of each month · Source: in-house aggregation & Finviz