April 2026 US Stock Market Monthly Report
In April, the US market closed its strongest month since November 2020, with the S&P 500 +9.68%, Nasdaq +14.28%, and Russell +11.38%. Sector rankings were virtually flipped across all 11 groups, with Technology ($XLK +17.18%) taking first place and Energy ($XLE -4.12%) falling to eleventh. A fab-four of memory and chip stocks led the surge with gains of +37% to +97%. The 4/30 FOMC hold and Core CPI undershoot sustained the Goldilocks narrative, but the 96th-percentile valuation flagged by Goldman Sachs strategist Kostin remains a potential crack for May.
Index Performance
April's US market closed with a broad-based risk-on rally. For the first time, both the S&P 500 7,200 line and the Nasdaq 25,000 line came into view simultaneously, delivering the strongest monthly performance since November 2020.
| Item | Symbol | Month-Open | Month-Close | Monthly Return | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (ETF) | SPY | 655.24 | 718.66 | +9.68% | +5.39% |
| Nasdaq 100 (ETF) | QQQ | 584.30 | 667.74 | +14.28% | +8.70% |
| Dow Jones (ETF) | DIA | 465.48 | 496.65 | +6.70% | +3.35% |
| Russell 2000 (ETF) | IWM | 249.56 | 277.97 | +11.38% | +12.92% |
| 10-Year Treasury (ETF) | IEF | 95.04 | 94.98 | -0.06% | -1.23% |
| Fear Index | ^VIX | avg 19.85 · peak 25.89 (4/7) | 16.89 (4/30) | — | slightly elevated vs. normal 14~16 |
| Dollar Index | DX-Y.NYB | 99.65 | 98.70 (4/23) | -0.95% | +0.43% |
| Gold (ETF) | GLD | 437.82 | 423.66 | -3.23% | +6.90% |
| Crude Oil (ETF) | USO | 124.09 | 147.09 | +18.53% | +112.68% |
The gaps across indices carry two implications. First, the Nasdaq +14.28% vs. Dow +6.70% spread of 7.6 percentage points confirms that April was thoroughly a month driven by AI and semiconductor momentum (detailed in §2 Sector Rotation and §4 TOP Movers of this monthly report). Second, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperforming the Dow at +11.38% signals that market breadth expanded from a megacap-only rally into small- and mid-caps. Meanwhile, the VIX (fear index, normal range 14~16) fell from the mid-20s at the start of the month to 16 by month-end, a drop of more than 7 points, confirming that risk aversion unwound sharply within a single month. Notably, the crude oil ETF (USO) at +112.68% YTD reflects Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, and combined with the safe-haven gold (GLD) April correction of -3.23%, this compresses April's asset-allocation signal into one line: risk assets and commodities rallied together while safe havens weakened.
Sector Rotation
April drew the mirror image of March. The rankings across all 11 sectors were effectively reversed.
| Sector | Proxy | April Return | Rank | March Rank | Rank Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | XLK | +17.18% | 1 | 4 | ▲3 |
| Consumer Discretionary | XLY | +8.32% | 2 | 5 | ▲3 |
| Real Estate | XLRE | +6.13% | 3 | 8 | ▲5 |
| Communications | XLC | +5.97% | 4 | 6 | ▲2 |
| Financials | XLF | +5.60% | 5 | 3 | ▼2 |
| Industrials | XLI | +4.02% | 6 | 11 | ▲5 |
| Materials | XLB | +2.72% | 7 | 7 | — |
| Consumer Staples | XLP | +0.80% | 8 | 10 | ▲2 |
| Healthcare | XLV | -0.91% | 9 | 9 | — |
| Utilities | XLU | -2.69% | 10 | 2 | ▼8 |
| Energy | XLE | -4.12% | 11 | 1 | ▼10 |
The most dramatic shift was the collapse of Energy and Utilities. The two sectors that ranked first and second in March tumbled to eleventh and tenth in April. Energy (XLE), which had surged +7.4% in March on escalating Hormuz tensions, posted -4.12% as profit-taking flooded in — the cleanest example of the reversal. On the other side, Industrials (XLI), which ranked eleventh in March, jumped five rungs to sixth, while Technology (XLK), stuck at fourth with -4.76% in March, climbed to first at +17.18%. Within a single month, capital rotated decisively from "defensive/resource" into "growth/domestic." The average return across the 11 sectors was +3.95%, a broad-based recovery of more than 9 percentage points versus the March average of -5.06%.
Economic Indicators × Market Reaction
| Date | Indicator | Estimate | Actual | Surprise | Day S&P | Next-Day S&P | VIX Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/3 | NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls, thousands) | 6.0 | 17.8 | +11.8 ↑ | closed (Good Friday) | +0.44% (4/6) | — |
| 4/3 | Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.4 | 4.3 | -0.1 | closed | +0.44% | — |
| 4/9 | GDP QoQ (%, advance) | 0.7 | 0.5 | -0.2 | +0.62% | -0.11% | -24.17% |
| 4/9 | PCE YoY (%) | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.0 | +0.62% | -0.11% | -24.17% |
| 4/9 | Core PCE YoY (%) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +0.62% | -0.11% | -24.17% |
| 4/10 | CPI YoY (%) | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.0 | -0.11% | +1.02% | -0.82% |
| 4/10 | Core CPI YoY (%) | 2.7 | 2.6 | -0.1 ↓ | -0.11% | +1.02% | -0.82% |
| 4/10 | Core CPI MoM (%) | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 ↓ | -0.11% | +1.02% | -0.82% |
| 4/30 | FOMC Rate Decision (upper bound, %) | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.0 (hold) | +1.02% | +0.29% (5/1) | -10.21% |
The month's biggest shock was the April 3 NFP overshoot of 118,000 jobs. Thanks to the Good Friday market closure, the first reaction on 4/6 was a relatively muted +0.44%. The Goldilocks combination of strong employment and cooling inflation underpinned the rally throughout the month. Even when the 4/9 advance GDP print undershot consensus at 0.5%, the market still rose +0.62%, interpreting "growth deceleration" as "higher odds of rate cuts."
The most important turning point was the April 30 FOMC hold. The rate was kept at 3.50~3.75%, but the absence of hawkish commentary was taken as a relief signal, producing a textbook relief rally of +1.02% on FOMC day with VIX down -10.21%. The combination of the hold decision and April's strong momentum carried over into an additional +0.29% gain on the first trading day of May.
TOP Movers
Top 10 Gainers
| # | Ticker | Name | April Return | Key Reason (DB Source) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INTC | Intel | +97.34% | Q1 EPS 29x beat, after-hours +19% (`earnings-INTC-20260423`) |
| 2 | STX | Seagate | +52.04% | Raised guidance on AI data center storage demand |
| 3 | NOK | Nokia | +50.67% | Telecom/network momentum |
| 4 | NXPI | NXP Semiconductors | +47.84% | Synchronized with semiconductor cycle |
| 5 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | +46.72% | AI infrastructure custom silicon demand |
| 6 | MU | Micron | +40.94% | View that memory shortage persists through 2027 |
| 7 | WDC | Western Digital | +38.75% | Synchronized with AI storage momentum |
| 8 | MCHP | Microchip | +37.98% | MCU and analog recovery |
| 9 | TXN | Texas Instruments | +37.15% | Synchronized with broad semiconductor rally |
| 10 | MPWR | Monolithic Power | +36.54% | AI server power management IC demand |
Top 10 Losers
| # | Ticker | Name | April Return | Key Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOOD | Robinhood | -22.00% | Slowing volumes, crypto-linked volatility |
| 2 | NOC | Northrop Grumman | -17.88% | Defense profit-taking |
| 3 | LMT | Lockheed Martin | -17.46% | Broad defense weakness |
| 4 | SPOT | Spotify | -17.36% | Growth-stock multiple compression |
| 5 | TAK | Takeda ADR | -13.16% | Large-cap pharma weakness |
| 6 | AEM | Agnico Eagle | -12.62% | Tracked gold (GLD) -3.23% |
| 7 | COHR | Coherent | -12.25% | Optical components profit-taking |
| 8 | REGN | Regeneron | -11.69% | Biotech momentum fade |
| 9 | RTX | RTX | -11.26% | Defense weakness despite earnings beat (`earnings-RTX-20260421`) |
| 10 | NOW | ServiceNow | -10.86% | High-multiple SaaS profit-taking |
Among the top 10 gainers, nine were semiconductor, memory, or communications infrastructure names. Intel's +97.34% stands out, driven by a Q1 EPS print that beat consensus by 29x along with an after-hours +19% surge that lifted the monthly return in one move. On the loser side, three defense names (NOC, LMT, RTX) appeared simultaneously, confirming that the March defense rally tied to Hormuz tensions unwound broadly in April.
Earnings Season Summary
As Q1 earnings season got into full swing, a total of 1,405 companies reported during April (663 before the open (BMO) and 742 after the close (AMC)). Among the 13 large caps in the DB with EPS results recorded, 84.6% (11/13) beat consensus.
Average EPS surprise by sector (based on the sample with EPS results recorded):
| Sector | Sample Size | Avg EPS Surprise |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | +1502% (Intel's 29x beat pulled up the average) |
| Consumer Discretionary | 2 | +53.1% |
| Communications | 3 | +32.0% |
| Financials | 3 | +8.3% |
| Consumer Staples | 1 | +1.9% |
| Healthcare | 2 | +0.4% |
The macro narrative breaks down as follows. First, Financials delivered the biggest trading quarter on record at five firms simultaneously (`earnings-GS-20260413`, `earnings-JPM-20260414`, `earnings-MS-20260415`, `earnings-BAC-20260415`, `earnings-C-20260414`). Second, megacap cloud re-acceleration was confirmed (`earnings-GOOGL-20260429` Cloud +63%, `earnings-MSFT-20260429` Azure +40%). Third, Big Tech capex burdens surfaced at Meta (`earnings-META-20260429` capex raised by +$10B), triggering a brief after-hours sell-off on 4/30. However, the 4/30 regular session was dominated by Alphabet +9.97%, Caterpillar +9.88%, and Eli Lilly +9% surges, with the Dow closing up +1.62%.
Monthly Assessment
April's US market can be summed up in one word: "Mean Reversion." Energy and Utilities, which ranked first and second in March, plummeted to eleventh and tenth in April, while Industrials and Technology, which sat at eleventh and fourth in March, jumped to sixth and first. The fact that the rankings of all 11 sectors were flipped demonstrates the intensity of the rotation.
The drivers behind this reversion split into three branches. First, partial easing of Middle East tensions. The clearest signal was Energy (XLE) reversing from +7.4% in March (on Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions) to -4.12% in April. That said, the crude oil ETF (USO) at +112.68% YTD suggests supply concerns have not fully dissipated. Second, re-acceleration of the AI and semiconductor cycle. The fab-four of memory (MU, SNDK, STX, WDC) and large-cap chip names (INTC, MRVL, NXPI, TXN) all surged between +37% and +97% in a single month — and importantly, this was not pure momentum but was grounded in earnings results (Intel EPS 29x beat, Seagate guidance raise, MSFT Azure +40%, GOOGL Cloud +63%).
Third, the Fed's wait-and-see mode. The 4/30 FOMC held at 3.50~3.75% without any hawkish commentary, which the market read as a "signal that the door to further cuts remains open," responding with a relief rally of +1.02% and VIX -10.21%. The combination of Core CPI YoY at 2.6%, undershooting consensus by -0.1 percentage point, and a strong NFP of +178,000 sustained the "growth resilient, inflation easing" Goldilocks narrative throughout the month.
Still, clear cracks appeared beneath April's strength. The narrowing market breadth is the key tell. The gap between the Dow +6.70% and the Nasdaq +14.28% indicates capital concentrated in 7~10 megacap names, and the case of Meta plunging -8.55% after-hours on 4/29 after raising capex guidance serves as a warning that AI Big Tech capex burdens are hitting the multiple ceiling. Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin noted on 4/30 that "current equity valuations sit at the 96th percentile since 1980," pointing in the same direction.
By monthly returns alone, the S&P 500 +9.68%, Nasdaq +14.28%, and Russell +11.38% delivered the strongest month since November 2020. What follows such an explosive month is the core question for May. Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee sees "the S&P 500 breaking above 7,700 this year as a very plausible scenario," while Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson declared in April that "a new bull market has begun," setting a 12-month target of 7,800. By contrast, the 96th-percentile valuation boundary Kostin flagged remains a crack that, if any of the May macro data (5/8 April NFP, 5/12 April CPI) or megacap earnings (5/20 Nvidia, 5/21 Walmart, 5/4 Berkshire) stumble, could translate into a sharp wave of profit-taking.
May's first trading day opened at +0.29%, and the memory fab-four all crossed above the RSI 70 line, registering as a short-term overheat signal. For April's rally to extend into May, the Goldilocks narrative needs one more confirmation from the early-May jobs and inflation data — that is the homework April left behind.
Key Dates to Watch Next Month
May features the second half of megacap earnings alongside April macro releases simultaneously. The most important dates are:
- 5/4 (Mon) — Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, market cap $1T) Q1 earnings and annual shareholders meeting. Warren Buffett's messaging will set the tone for value and financial sectors.
- 5/5 (Tue) — AMD (AMD) and Arista Networks (ANET) earnings. Checkpoint on AI infrastructure follow-through momentum.
- 5/8 (Fri) — April NFP, unemployment rate, CPI (YoY/MoM), and Core CPI all released on the same day. The most important macro turning point determining whether April's Goldilocks narrative extends into May.
- 5/12 (Tue) — Additional Core CPI MoM/YoY release (different reporting agency).
- 5/13 (Wed) — Cisco (CSCO) and Alibaba (BABA) earnings.
- 5/19 (Tue) — Home Depot (HD) earnings. A read on US consumer sentiment.
- 5/20 (Wed) — Nvidia (NVDA, market cap $4.8T) earnings. The true test of April's AI cycle. April PCE and Core PCE also released the same day.
- 5/21 (Thu) — Walmart (WMT) earnings. A core read on US retail.
May's macro calendar is structured so that NFP, CPI, and unemployment rate all hit on a single day (5/8), meaning that one print will validate or invalidate the late-April rally momentum. On the earnings front, 5/20 Nvidia is likely to deliver the final decisive blow for the megacap cycle, with data center revenue, guidance, and capex policy feeding directly into megacap multiples.
Related Content
- Daily market summaries (April, 20 installments): 4/1 · 4/2 · 4/6 · 4/7 · 4/8 · 4/9 · 4/10 · 4/13 · 4/14 · 4/15 · 4/16 · 4/17 · 4/20 · 4/21 · 4/22 · 4/23 · 4/24 · 4/27 · 4/28 · 4/29
- 6 key earnings reviews: Intel INTC · TSMC · Alphabet · Microsoft · Meta · GE Aerospace
- One year ago this month: /history?year=2025
Disclaimer: 과거 수익률은 미래 성과를 보장하지 않습니다 · This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment responsibility lies with the investor.
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