Earnings Analysis November 3, 2026

Expro Ltd ($XPRO) Q3 2026 Earnings Analysis: Revenue Beats Estimates, Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Lowered

Earnings Report

Revenue: $439.94 million (up 7.0% YoY, vs. expected $434 million) ✅ Beat

EPS (Earnings Per Share): -$0.05 (based on GAAP for Q3 2026; direct comparison with the expected $0.29 is not possible as it is based on adjusted figures)

Guidance: Raised annual adjusted free cash flow to $140 million–$150 million; lowered annual adjusted EBITDA to $330 million–$340 million; Q4 revenue guidance of $465 million–$485 million; Q4 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $100 million–$110 million

Stock Reaction: -14.05% in regular trading ($13.64, as of 01:05 on 11-04 KST)

Highlights

Revenue: Q3 revenue reached $439.94 million, up 12% from the previous quarter and 7% year-over-year, exceeding the expected $434 million

Profitability: Adjusted EBITDA was $91.21 million with a 20.7% margin, an improvement from 19% in the previous quarter

Cash: Adjusted free cash flow was $52.29 million with an upward revision to the annual outlook; newly approved a $100 million share buyback plan

Revenue was driven by the acquisition of Enhanced Drilling and increased drilling and completion activities in the US, Brazil, and Suriname. Cash generation also improved alongside better working capital management.

Lowlights

Net Loss: A net loss of $5.2 million on a GAAP basis, with EPS of -$0.05, turning to a loss from $0.12 in the same period last year

Guidance: Lowered the annual adjusted EBITDA outlook from $355 million–$365 million to $330 million–$340 million

Delays: Q4 adjusted EBITDA expectations decreased by approximately $20 million due to bad weather in the Gulf of Mexico and schedule changes in Colombia

Operating income was limited to $4.88 million as depreciation increased to $53.28 million, and $9.99 million in merger and integration costs and $8.77 million in restructuring costs were reflected. AMENA (Asia, Middle East, and North Africa) revenue also decreased by 1% due to declining well flow revenue in Saudi Arabia.

What the Company Said

CEO Michael Jardon noted that third-quarter results increased significantly compared to the second quarter and expects another increase in the fourth quarter. He explained that the shift of high-margin activities to 2027 is merely a scheduling matter, and the value of the work and cash flow remain intact.

Market Reaction and Future Key Points

While third-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, the company lowered its fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance by approximately $20 million and reduced its full-year outlook from the previous $355 million–$365 million to $330 million–$340 million. The delay of high-margin projects to 2027 was the primary driver behind the stock's decline on this day.

Whether the company can achieve fourth-quarter revenue of $465 million–$485 million and adjusted EBITDA of $100 million–$110 million

Whether the Gulf of Mexico subsea projects and Colombia well intervention projects, which were pushed to 2027, will actually be reflected in next year's revenue

The execution capability regarding the outlook for mid-10% adjusted EBITDA growth and over 20% adjusted free cash flow growth in 2027

Earnings Call Summary

Once the earnings call concludes and the company's transcript is released, the key takeaways from the call will be added here. We will select and summarize only the most important points, such as how management explained the results and outlook, and what questions analysts asked.