Earnings Analysis November 5, 2026

TC Energy Corp ($TRP) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis: Profits Beat Expectations, Annual Guidance Raised

Earnings Report

Revenue: Company revenue not disclosed (Adjusted EBITDA 3.004 billion CAD, +13% YoY), estimate 3.946 billion USD · Hold

EPS (Earnings Per Share): 0.94 CAD on an adjusted basis (Q3 FY2026), 0.98 CAD on a GAAP basis, estimate $0.88 · Hold (Results are in CAD while estimates are in USD, making direct comparison impossible)

Guidance: Upward revision · 2026 Adjusted EBITDA 11.8 billion~12.0 billion CAD, 2027 12.3 billion~12.5 billion CAD, 5~7% CAGR through 2031, 2026 adjusted EPS expected to be higher than 2025

Stock Reaction: After-hours +5.03% ($65.76, as of 11-05 21:15 KST)

Strengths

13% Increase in Adjusted EBITDA: Reached 3.004 billion CAD, surpassing 2.654 billion CAD in the same period last year

Strong Performance in US Gas Pipelines: Segment profit rose 26% YoY to 1.013 billion CAD

3 billion CAD in New Project Approvals: Included the Cross North expansion and American Midwest

Excluding the Canadian segment, the US, Mexico, and Power segments all increased profits compared to the same period last year. Mexico segment profit increased by approximately 1% to 411 million CAD, and the Power segment increased 62% to 308 million CAD. The company stated that projects approved since the beginning of the year total approximately 6 billion CAD, with a weighted average construction multiple of 6.5x.

Weaknesses

Stagnation in Canadian Gas Pipelines: Segment profit slightly decreased to 531 million CAD from 533 million CAD in the same period last year

Decrease in Operating Cash Flow: 1.782 billion CAD, falling short of 1.920 billion CAD in the same period last year

Increase in Interest Expense: 883 million CAD, up 4% from the same period last year

Since revenue was not separately specified in the press release, it is difficult to compare it against the 3.946 billion USD estimate. Because the adjusted EPS (0.94 CAD) uses a different currency than the estimate ($0.88), it is difficult to judge performance against expectations using simple figures. The 2026 adjusted EPS outlook was also limited to the expression that it would be higher than 2025, without providing specific figures.

What the Company Said

CEO François Poirier cited natural gas segment operational performance, projects completed ahead of schedule, and constructive agreement results as the background for raising the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. As for the basis for the projected compound annual growth rate of 5-7% through 2031, the company presented approximately CAD 6 billion in projects approved since the beginning of the year, approximately CAD 6 billion awaiting approval, and over CAD 40 billion in opportunities in the exploration stage.

Market Reaction and Future Key Points

The after-hours rise appears to be the result of the simultaneous announcement of the upward revision of the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, the five-year growth outlook through 2031, and the approval of approximately CAD 3 billion in new projects.

It is necessary to verify how management explains the assumptions for the 2027 and 2031 outlooks during the conference call.

It remains to be seen whether the 2030 operational schedules for the Cross North expansion and the American Midwest project are maintained.

The early 2027 construction start and the capital sharing structure for the Coastal GasLink Phase 2 expansion are the next points to watch.

Earnings Call Key Summary

Once the company script is released after the earnings call, the key contents from the call will be added to this section. We will select and summarize only the important aspects, such as how management explained the results and outlook, and what analysts asked.