실적분석 2026년 8월 18일

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile ($SQM) Q2 2026 Earnings Preview — Official Figures Unconfirmed; Modest After-Hours Gain

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: Figure unconfirmed (consensus: $2.224 billion) — beat/miss call on hold pending the official press release

EPS: Figure unconfirmed (consensus: $2.04) — beat/miss call on hold pending the official press release

Guidance: Not yet provided — cannot be verified as the official earnings release has not been published

Stock reaction: After-hours +0.64% ($74.95) — as of 05:56 KST on 08-19

Positives

No after-hours sell-off: Modestly positive drift during the wait for the print

Tight lithium supply backdrop: Realized prices and volumes are the key swing variables

Tracking +15% annual sales growth: Whether the existing lithium volume growth target is on track

Since the confirmed income-statement numbers have not yet been released, we cannot declare this a "good print." The market held off from aggressive selling and stayed in a wait-and-see mode, and whether realized lithium prices and volumes line up with the prior narrative is the starting point for the next round of interpretation. Even after the figures are confirmed, price and volume need to be read together to gauge the earnings trajectory. ## Negatives

Official figures unconfirmed: Beat/miss judgment on revenue and EPS is not possible

Lithium-price dependence: A meaningful share of earnings hinges on realized prices

Complex JV structure: Year-on-year comparisons warrant caution following the Codelco transaction

Because the press release has not been verified, constructing a beat-or-miss narrative is off limits. The lithium concentration risk and the joint-venture economics deserve to be flagged ahead of the numbers. Holding off on a judgment until the official release is the safer call. ## What Management Said

The official Q2 press release has not yet been verified, so we cannot quote any fresh management commentary. In Q1, the company noted that the Q2 average realized lithium price could come in higher than Q1, so the key question at this release is whether that outlook holds up. Once fresh comments are verified, we will supplement the quotes accordingly. ## Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

With the confirmed numbers still pending, the market staged a modest bounce in wait-and-see mode. The degree to which realized lithium prices and volumes line up with consensus will likely set the near-term direction. - Whether the average realized lithium price (per kilogram) topped Q1's roughly $17.8

Progress against the full-year lithium sales-volume growth target of around 15% through the first half

How the state's share and costs under the post-Codelco JV have affected margins