실적분석 2026년 7월 31일

Banco Santander ($SAN) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Record Underlying Profit, Full-Year Guidance Reaffirmed, After-Hours Flat

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: Q2 underlying total revenue €15.7 billion (+9% YoY, +6% in constant euros) ✅ Beat

EPS: Statutory €0.23 / underlying €0.25 (first-half underlying EPS €0.48, +20% YoY) — statutory figure slightly missed some consensus estimates (€0.24) ❌ Miss

Guidance: Reaffirmed — confirmed 2026 targets (high-single-digit revenue growth in constant euros, cost declines, profit above €14.1 billion, CET1 ratio 12.8–13%, excluding M&A impact)

Share Price Reaction: After-hours +0.07% ($14.12) — as of 07-31 20:38 KST

Positives

Record Earnings: Q2 underlying attributable profit €3.77 billion (+17%), first-half €7.33 billion (+15%)

Revenue & Efficiency: First-half revenue +6%, efficiency ratio 42.8%, a 2.9 percentage-point improvement from the prior year

Shareholder Returns: Continued buyback plan in place, with first-half earnings-linked ~€1.8 billion authorized by the European Central Bank

Spanish megabank Banco Santander said its first-half underlying profit hit an all-time high, driven by expanded customer activity and its "One Transformation" strategy (a cost-and-platform efficiency initiative). Both net interest income and fee income rose, and costs declined in constant euros once the TSB (a UK bank) integration was excluded.

The bank completed the TSB acquisition in late April, broadening its UK deposit and mortgage base, and added about 12 million customers over the past year, bringing the total to roughly 182 million. Underlying return on tangible equity (ROTE) climbed to 15.6%, and management emphasized that the franchise remains on track to meet its full-year targets.

Negatives

One-Off Costs: ~€250 million net in TSB integration restructuring charges weighed on statutory profit

Provisions Burden: Loan-loss provisions +9%, reflecting risks in markets such as Argentina

Capital Drain: The TSB deal shaved roughly 0.55 percentage points off the CET1 ratio

Statutory attributable profit rose about 3% YoY to €3.52 billion in Q2, but the year-over-year comparison is muddied by the absence of the Q1 Poland business-sale gain (~€1.9 billion) and the addition of TSB restructuring charges. Reports indicate that statutory EPS of €0.23 came in slightly below some consensus estimates of €0.24.

Provisions increased in Argentina (ex-Argentina, provisions were largely stable), and UK auto-finance-related potential complaint provisions remain an overhang from the first half. The U.S. Webster acquisition has yet to close, leaving the timing of capital-ratio and synergy realization uncertain.

What Management Said

Management framed the first-half results as a combination of "record underlying profit" and "customer and revenue growth coupled with cost discipline," while reaffirming all 2026 targets excluding M&A effects. The tone leaned more toward confidence than defensiveness, and the bank positioned the TSB UK acquisition as a milestone in strengthening a core market.

The market appears to have largely digested the profit growth and reaffirmed targets, then settled into a wait-and-see stance rather than a directional bet, citing the slight statutory EPS miss, restructuring charges, and Latin American provisions. The buyback program and capital-ratio cushion remain a medium-term story.

Market Reaction and What to Watch

The results themselves have the "big picture intact" feel of record underlying profit and reaffirmed full-year guidance, but the combination of one-off statutory noise and region-specific provisions kept the share price to a narrow, directionless move. The year-to-date rally in the stock may also explain why additional buying momentum was limited despite the solid print.

Confirm that the second half stays on the path of high-single-digit revenue growth, cost declines, and profit above €14.1 billion.

Monitor TSB integration synergies (cost-saving targets) and any additional UK auto-finance provisions.

Track the timing of the Webster acquisition close and the trajectory toward the 12.8–13% year-end CET1 ratio target.