실적분석 2026년 8월 11일

On Holding ($ONON) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Margins Hold Up, but Softer Growth Guidance Triggers After-Hours Selloff

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: CHF 850.3M (+13.5% YoY; consensus $881M) ✅ Beat

EPS: Diluted CHF 0.31 (ordinary share basis) (consensus $0.34) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Mixed — Full-year constant-currency revenue growth now low-20%s (slight cut from prior "at least 23%") · Gross margin raised to 65.0%+ · Adjusted EBITDA margin maintained at 19.5–20.0%

Stock reaction: After-hours −16.09% ($32.54) — as of 08-11 20:47 KST

What Went Well

Gross margin 65.4%: Up 3.9 ppt from 61.5% a year ago, even after absorbing U.S. tariffs

DTC growth strong: CHF 388.4M (+26.0%, +34.3% constant currency), accounting for 45.7% of revenue

Asia-Pacific surge: Revenue +43.1% (+54.7% constant currency), reaching 20% of the regional mix

The mix shift toward DTC, combined with a maintained full-price selling discipline, strengthened the margin structure. Apparel (+47.7%) and accessories (+88.3%) also grew rapidly, showing the brand broadening its categories beyond footwear.

What Fell Short

Full-year revenue guidance cut: Constant-currency growth now in the low-20%s, down from the prior "at least 23%"

Wholesale and Americas slowdown: Wholesale +4.8%, Americas +4.5% (as reported) dragged on overall growth

SG&A burden rising: SG&A at 51.3% of revenue (vs. 49.1% a year ago), driven by higher marketing and store costs

Management explained that it intentionally throttled wholesale shipments to protect brand equity in a heavily promotional environment. The choice prioritized margins and brand over near-term revenue pace, but it weighed on a market that had been pricing in high growth from a growth stock.

What Management Said

Management emphasized the principle of scaling globally while preserving a premium position. By reducing wholesale volume to defend full-price selling and creating room for new product launches in the second half, the company lowered its full-year revenue growth outlook while raising the gross margin forecast.

Market Reaction and Key Things to Watch

Earnings and margins were solid, but the combination of softer full-year growth guidance and weakness in wholesale and the Americas pushed the market to react first to the deceleration in growth pace.

Watch how much the wholesale shipment throttling in the second half actually weighs on reported revenue growth.

Monitor the impact of U.S. tariff refunds (approximately CHF 27.9M) expected to be recognized in Q3 on gross margin.

Check whether the company can deliver full-year constant-currency revenue growth in the "low-20%s" and adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.5–20.0%.