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7월 29일 · 실적분석
실적분석

Microsoft ($MSFT) FY2026 Q4 Earnings Analysis — Adjusted EPS and Revenue Both Beat, Cloud and AI Growth Continues

MSFT Microsoft 실적 요약

Microsoft ($MSFT) reported fiscal year 2026 fourth quarter (April–June) revenue of $90 billion (+18%, vs. $87.631 billion estimate) and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.74 (vs. $4.24 estimate), both comfortably exceeding consensus. Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 43%, and annual Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time. The press release did not include next-quarter guidance figures, and the market appears to be responding positively to the cloud and AI momentum.

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Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $90 billion (+18% YoY, vs. $87.631 billion estimate) ✅ Beat
EPS (Earnings Per Share): Adjusted diluted EPS $4.74 (+23% YoY, vs. $4.24 estimate) ✅ Beat
Guidance: Not provided — to be issued on the earnings conference call
Stock reaction: After-hours +2.96% ($402.1) — as of 06:00 KST, July 30
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Highlights

Revenue and adjusted EPS both beat: Revenue of $90 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.74, both exceeding estimates
Azure strong growth: Azure and other cloud services revenue +43%, annual Azure revenue surpasses $100 billion
Order backlog surges: Commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $678 billion, +84% YoY
Microsoft is a large-cap technology company spanning operating systems, Office, cloud, and artificial intelligence (AI) platforms. This quarter was one where both the "numbers" and the "growth story" came through at the same time. Revenue of $90 billion rose 18% YoY (17% in constant currency), beating the analyst estimate of $87.631 billion by roughly 2.7%. On an adjusted (non-GAAP, excluding OpenAI investment gains/losses) basis, diluted EPS came in at $4.74, exceeding the $4.24 estimate by 50 cents, while GAAP diluted EPS was $4.81 (+32%). Because consensus is reported on an adjusted basis, the apples-to-apples comparison is $4.74.
The growth engine was Intelligent Cloud and Microsoft Cloud. Intelligent Cloud revenue reached $39.3 billion (+32%), Azure and other cloud services grew 43%, and Microsoft Cloud revenue posted $59.3 billion (+27%). CEO Nadella noted that Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time this year and that paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats exceeded 30 million. The 84% jump in commercial RPO, reaching $678 billion, also reads as a signal that a thick backlog of cloud and AI contracts is yet to be recognized.
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Areas of Concern

Consumer and gaming weakness: More Personal Computing revenue -4%, Xbox content and services -10%
Windows hardware softness: Windows OEM and devices revenue -7%
Mixed one-time gains: $3.2 billion gain related to Anthropic investment contributed $0.27 of benefit to diluted EPS
The soft spots are "personal computing" and the composition of earnings. More Personal Computing revenue was $12.9 billion, down 4% (5% in constant currency), with Windows OEM and devices (-7%) and Xbox content and services (-10%) both stepping backward. The PC refresh cycle and a gaming-segment adjustment phase appear to have overlapped — cloud strength can mask this, but it is not an indicator of balanced performance across the portfolio.
The company also disclosed that, compared with its April 29 guidance, this quarter's diluted EPS included $0.27 of discrete-item benefits. These included a $3.2 billion mark-to-market gain on the Anthropic investment and lower-than-projected voluntary separation program costs, partially offset by restructuring charges and an Xbox impairment. Management explained that even after stripping out one-time and mark-to-market items, revenue, operating income, and diluted EPS still exceeded expectations — but when assessing the "quality" of the headline beat, this piece is hard to ignore. Search advertising (excluding traffic acquisition costs) was a bright spot at +10%, but it is not a story robust enough to offset the hardware and gaming softness.
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What Management Said

"Azure surpassed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time this year, and Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats exceeded 30 million. This shows that customers trust us as the partner to lead their AI transformation." — Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

"We closed the fiscal year with a strong quarter, highlighted by Microsoft Cloud revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27% year over year." — Amy Hood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Management's tone leaned toward confidence, with emphasis on "cloud and AI execution." Chairman and CEO Satya Nadella explained that the company is pushing the frontier of the cost-to-performance curve so customers can convert tokens into real business outcomes, and he pointed to the $100 billion annual Azure milestone and 30 million paid Copilot seats as evidence of customer trust. CFO Amy Hood highlighted Microsoft Cloud revenue of $59.3 billion (+27%) as she described a strong close to the fiscal year.
That said, the press release itself did not contain next-quarter or full-year revenue and EPS guidance figures. The company only stated that forward guidance would be provided on the earnings conference call and webcast, so the appropriate designation for guidance in this article's scorecard is "Not provided." What the market will focus on during the call includes whether Azure's growth rate is sustained, the return on AI infrastructure investment, and the trajectory of earnings net of one-time items.
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Market Reaction and Points to Watch

The post-close results saw both revenue and adjusted EPS top estimates, and Azure's 43% growth combined with the surge in commercial order backlog reaffirmed the "AI investment → cloud revenue" narrative. Even with one-time factors such as the Anthropic-related mark-to-market gain mixed in, the fact that management itself said results exceeded expectations even after adjusting for these items appears to have provided relief. In a mega-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately {{MARKET_CAP}}, the after-hours bid looks more like a reconfirmation of growth momentum than a simple beat.
Watch whether the next-quarter and full-year revenue and EPS guidance issued on the conference call exceeds current analyst expectations (note: the $4.24 next-quarter EPS consensus is only a reference figure, not company guidance)
Monitor whether Azure's growth rate stays near the 40% range and whether AI demand and capacity supply create bottlenecks
Check whether the declines in gaming and Windows OEM revenue halt after the Xbox impairment and restructuring, and whether the operating income trajectory net of one-time items remains stable
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