실적분석 2026년 8월 4일

Merck ($MRK) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue and Adjusted EPS Both Beat; Full-Year Revenue Guidance Raised

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $16.607 billion (+5% YoY, estimate $16.368 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS: Adjusted loss of $0.13 per share (estimate -$0.26) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Revenue raised (full-year $66.3–$67.3 billion); adjusted EPS $2.66–$2.76 (now reflects Turnstone acquisition costs, etc.)

Stock Reaction: +1.47% in extended trading ($129.65) — as of 08-04 20:43 KST

The Positives

Revenue beat: Worldwide revenue of $16.607 billion, +5% YoY (+4% ex-FX)

Core product growth: Keytruda $8.366 billion (+5%), Winrevair $588 million (+75%)

Full-year revenue guidance raised: Prior $65.8–$67.0 billion → raised to $66.3–$67.3 billion with a tightened range

Merck's Q2 revenue exceeded market expectations, driven by growth in oncology, cardiovascular, and animal health. The flagship immuno-oncology drug Keytruda (including Keytruda Qlex) grew 5% YoY on expanded early-stage indications and demand in metastatic indications, with subcutaneous formulation Keytruda Qlex contributing $463 million, confirming early uptake. Winrevair, a treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension, surged 75%, supported by U.S. penetration and the early stages of launches in Japan and Europe.

Animal health revenue rose 8% (+5% ex-FX) to $1.775 billion, with balanced contributions from Bravecto, Prevymis, Wellreg, and Nobivac. The company raised its full-year worldwide revenue outlook to $66.3–$67.3 billion, signaling confidence in growth including an FX tailwind of roughly +1%. Additional pipeline news — the U.S. FDA approval of oral PCSK9 inhibitor Lippendra and positive Phase 3 data for a once-weekly oral HIV regimen — further reinforced the long-term growth narrative.

The Negatives

Adjusted loss as well: $2.31 per-share cost from the Turnstone acquisition reflected, resulting in an adjusted loss of $0.13 per share

Sharp decline in diabetes products: Januvia/Janumet revenue of $429 million, -31% YoY

Full-year adjusted EPS guidance cut: Prior $5.04–$5.16 → $2.66–$2.76 (now reflects Turnstone acquisition costs, etc.)

On the surface, the loss is better characterized as one-time charges tied to a major acquisition rather than business weakness. The GAAP net loss attributable to the company (Q2 2026) was $1.335 billion, with GAAP EPS of -$0.54 per share; the adjusted net loss attributable to the company was $330 million, or -$0.13 per share. Both GAAP and adjusted figures include $2.31 per share in costs related to the Turnstone acquisition. R&D expense surged from roughly $4.0 billion a year earlier to about $9.7 billion (including about $5.7 billion of Turnstone-related charges).

Structural pressures also remain. Diabetes drugs Januvia and Janumet fell 31% due to U.S. competition and generic pressure in markets including China, and COVID-19 treatment Lagevrio plunged 95%. GAAP gross margin declined to 73.5% from 77.5% a year earlier. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was significantly lowered to reflect acquisition-related one-time charges, meaning investors must look through these items to gauge underlying core profitability.

What the Company Said

Management framed the quarter as one of strong execution and broader new-product contributions across the business. Chairman and CEO Robert Davis called the Lippendra approval a new milestone in the cardiovascular franchise and emphasized that regulatory and clinical progress in oncology, HIV, and immunology demonstrates the portfolio transformation and the next wave of innovation. The market appeared to focus less on the headline loss and more on the revenue beat, the raised full-year revenue guide, and the new-product and pipeline momentum.

For the full-year outlook, the company narrowed the revenue range while raising it, and presented adjusted EPS that includes Sidera and Turnstone acquisition-related financial and development costs. The key takeaway is that the EPS range has been pulled down sharply to reflect acquisition-related charges. The company also reiterated that it is not assuming any additional large business development deals.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

The headlines centered on losses tied to a large acquisition charge, but the market appears to have first reflected the revenue beat, the raised full-year revenue guidance, and confirmation of growth engines such as Keytruda Qlex and Winrevair. The adjusted loss was narrower than consensus, and the fact that much of the loss stemmed from already-known acquisition accounting also provided some relief. Layered on top were pipeline positives such as the Lippendra approval and the positive Phase 3 read-out for the once-weekly oral HIV regimen, tilting extended trading modestly to the upside.

Whether Keytruda's early-stage indications and Qlex uptake continue to underpin revenue growth.

Whether the pace of Winrevair's U.S. penetration and the ramp of launches in Japan and Europe establish it as a growth engine.

Whether early Lippendra sales and core profitability (excluding one-time charges tied to Sidera, Turnstone, etc.) align with full-year guidance.