Earnings Analysis November 5, 2026

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd ($CNQ) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis: Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates, Share Buybacks Expanded

Earnings Report

Revenue: Final figure undisclosed (not stated in press release, prior to confirming the expected 12.14 billion CAD)

EPS (Earnings Per Share): Adjusted 1.65 CAD, expected 1.51 CAD ⭕ Beat

Guidance: Newly provided · 800 million USD monthly share buybacks in November and December, 100% of 2027 free cash flow to be returned to shareholders

Stock Price Reaction: -0.72% in regular session ($49.285, as of 05:16 on 11-06 KST)

Highlights

Adjusted EPS of 1.65 CAD: On a diluted basis, this is nearly double the 0.86 CAD from the same period last year and exceeded the market expectation of 1.51 CAD.

Thermal Oil Sands Production Record: 299,632 barrels per day, a 9% increase from the same period last year.

Achieved $13 billion Net Debt Target: Net debt at the end of September was 12.117 billion CAD, falling below the target.

Despite quarterly production decreasing by 75,000 barrels per day due to the Horizon maintenance, total production increased by 2% year-over-year to 1,651,720 barrels of oil equivalent. Both thermal oil sands and North American liquid production hit new quarterly highs.

Lowlights

Synthetic Crude Oil Production Down 7%: 543,089 barrels per day, impacted by the Horizon maintenance.

Net Income Decreased Quarter-over-Quarter: 2.997 billion CAD, falling short of the 4.503 billion CAD in Q2.

Heavy Oil Operating Costs Rose: 18.02 CAD per barrel, up from 16.46 CAD in the same period last year.

Free cash flow was 2.097 billion CAD, a decrease from 2.975 billion CAD in Q2. The decline in the average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price to 85.68 USD per barrel from 92.85 USD in Q2 was reflected in the results.

What the Company Said

CEO Scott Stauth stated that the Horizon maintenance was completed in 28 days, seven days ahead of schedule, and that based on these results, the maintenance cycle will be extended to once every three years. CFO Victor Darel explained that since the net debt target has been met, the entire free cash flow will be used for share buybacks.

Market Reaction and Future Key Points

Adjusted earnings per share exceeded market expectations (CAD 1.51), but lower oil prices compared to the second quarter and decreased net income were confirmed on the same day. The share buyback expansion presented by the company will serve as a benchmark for shareholder returns in the next quarter.

Q4 oil sands mine and upgrading operations: Due to the early completion of the Horizon scheduled maintenance, an additional 23,000 barrels of synthetic crude oil per day was added compared to the plan; following the maintenance, the total production of the oil sands mine and upgrading business units is currently recording an average of approximately 640,000 barrels per day.

Pace of share buyback execution: The key factor is whether the company actually fulfills $800 million each in November and December.

Crude oil export capacity: Committed volumes for the Trans Mountain expansion route have been increased to 177,750 barrels per day.

Earnings Call Key Summary

Once the company script is released after the earnings call, the key contents from the call will be added to this section. We will select and summarize only the important points, such as how management explained the results and outlook and what analysts asked.