Earnings Analysis November 5, 2026

Cummins Inc ($CMI) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis: EPS Beats Estimates, Revenue Misses · Guidance Lowered

Earnings Report

Revenue: $9.438 billion (up 13% YoY, vs. expected $9.879 billion) ❌ Miss

EPS (Earnings Per Share): $8.25 (diluted, GAAP / vs. expected $8.17) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Lowered · Annual revenue growth rate approx. 10% (previously 10-13%), EBITDA margin approx. 18.2% (previously 18-18.5% range)

Stock Reaction: After-hours -3.57% ($455, as of 11-05 21:49 KST)

Highlights

Data Center Power: Power Systems segment EBITDA margin 25.4%, compared to 22.9% a year ago

Record Profitability: Group EBITDA margin reached a record high of 18.9%, compared to 14.3% a year ago

Top-line Growth: Revenue increased 13% to $9.438 billion, with North American revenue up 15%

Power systems drove group profits, supported by power generation demand for data centers in the US, China, and Asia-Pacific. The Engine and Components segment also achieved double-digit revenue growth due to a recovery in North American truck demand. The company returned $661 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the third quarter.

Lowlights

Revenue Miss: Approximately 4.5% below the expected $9.879 billion

Guidance Cut: Annual revenue growth outlook lowered from 10-13% to approximately 10%

Distribution Segment Slowdown: Revenue grew only 4%, and EBITDA margin fell from 15.5% to 13.9%

The revenue miss was driven by weak demand for pickup trucks in North America. The company expects this weakness to continue through the end of the year and has adjusted its annual outlook accordingly. Diluted EPS included a one-time tax effect of $0.54, and Accelera, the zero-emissions business unit, saw revenue decline by 15%, resulting in an EBITDA loss of $56 million.

What the Company Said

Chair and CEO Jennifer Rumsey explained that the company recorded record EBITDA and earnings per share in the third quarter, bolstered by the strength of the power systems business. While the company expects the sluggish demand for North American pickup trucks to persist through the end of the year, it forecasts that fourth-quarter revenue will exceed third-quarter levels to set a new record.

Market Reaction and Future Outlook

The decline in after-hours stock price comes as revenue fell short of expectations and the company lowered its annual revenue growth guidance from 10-13% to approximately 10%. While profits reached an all-time high, the key factor for fourth-quarter performance is the pace of recovery in North American pickup truck demand.

Whether the company achieves the record-breaking fourth-quarter revenue it has forecasted

Power systems' data center generator orders and the expansion of the battery storage business

Whether the sluggish demand for North American pickup trucks continues beyond the end of the year

Earnings Call Key Summary

Once the earnings call concludes and the company's transcript is released, the key takeaways from the call will be added here. We will select and summarize only the most important points, such as how management explained performance and outlook, and what analysts asked.