실적분석 2026년 7월 28일

Clearwater Paper ($CLW) Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue Matches Estimates, Adjusted Loss Per Share Widens to -$1.75

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $374.8 million (-4.3% vs. $391.8 million a year earlier, in line with the $374.8 million estimate) Yellow circle In line

EPS (Earnings Per Share): Adjusted -$1.75 (wider loss vs. -$1.49 market estimate; GAAP net loss of -$1.33 per share) ❌ Miss

Guidance: The press release contained no quantitative outlook — only qualitative direction centered on cost reduction, operational execution, and enforcing previously announced price increases (conference call quantitative guidance pending official confirmation)

Stock Reaction: After-hours reaction pending confirmation

The Positives

Shipments up 8%: Paperboard shipments of 328,722 tons rose 8% year-over-year, successfully defending market share

Net debt reduced by $59 million: Improving the financial structure even during a loss-making quarter stands out

Revenue precisely matched estimates: At $374.8 million, in line with consensus — underlying demand has not collapsed

The most encouraging figure this quarter is that "the amount being sold" is growing. The company produces a premium paperboard known as Solid Bleached Sulfate (SBS), used in food packaging and cosmetic boxes. Shipments rose 8% year-over-year and also increased from the prior quarter (302,918 tons). Management noted that improving signals are emerging across the industry, including reduced import volumes and higher operating rates. The company also showed a defensive posture on the financial side. Even with negative adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, net debt was reduced by $59 million. In a cyclical trough, posting losses while debt simultaneously expands is the most dangerous combination — and the company avoided that combination this quarter. It is also meaningful that revenue essentially matched the consensus estimate exactly. It indicates that the wider loss was not driven by "things not selling," but rather by "price and cost" dynamics. ## The Negatives

Adjusted loss exceeded estimates: Adjusted loss per share of -$1.75 was worse than the -$1.49 market estimate

Profitability swung into the red: Adjusted EBITDA of -$8.2 million, a sharp reversal from +$39.9 million a year earlier

Sustained weakness in paperboard prices: Price declines fully offset the volume gains

The most disappointing aspect is the quality of earnings. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a profit of $39.9 million a year earlier to a loss of $8.2 million this quarter. One-off factors are significant: a major scheduled maintenance outage at the Lewiston, Idaho mill was concentrated in this quarter, and the company had previously guided that this work would cost $22–24 million. However, not everything can be explained by one-offs. Shipments rose 8%, yet revenue actually fell 4.3%. That implies a meaningful decline in per-ton selling prices, and management itself acknowledged that current prices are below levels that can generate reasonable returns. The GAAP net loss was $21.5 million (-$1.33 per share). Notably, this is smaller than the adjusted loss of -$1.75, because the adjustments exclude certain one-time gain items — meaning the actual underlying operating performance is closer to the adjusted figures, which is the safer interpretation. ## What Management Said

Management's message can be summarized as: "The numbers are bad, but the parts we can control went according to plan." Three points were emphasized — completion of the scheduled outage, cost reductions, and volume gains — and all three were actually delivered. At the same time, the company noted that improving signals are beginning to emerge in industry conditions, including volume increases, reduced imports, and higher operating rates. The company added that recent SBS price increases are starting to be reflected in industry price indices (RISI), but still fall short of levels needed to generate satisfactory returns, and explained that going forward, it will focus on cost reduction, operational execution, and enforcing the price increases already announced. The press release did not include specific quantitative guidance for Q3 or the full year. ## Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

This print will be interpreted through the lens of "is the bottom in, or is the bottom extending?" Volume gains and debt reduction are positive signals, but the adjusted loss exceeded estimates and prices remain below levels the company itself describes as insufficient for adequate returns. With a market capitalization of just {{MARKET_CAP}} and a headcount of {{EMPLOYEES}}, this is a small-cap name where stock-price volatility can be significant depending on the earnings trajectory. Given that a substantial portion of this quarter's loss was the one-off cost of the Lewiston scheduled outage, the next quarter's profitability — with that burden removed — will be the real benchmark. - Will adjusted EBITDA return to positive territory in Q3 once the scheduled outage costs roll off? - Will the paperboard price increase the company announced actually flow through into contract pricing and lift per-ton realization? - Will the shipment growth (+8% year-over-year) carry into the next quarter, and will the net debt reduction trend be sustained?