Earnings Analysis October 31, 2026

Anheuser-Busch InBev ($BUD) Q3 2026 Earnings Analysis: Revenue and EPS Beat Expectations, Shares Fall 1.8%

Earnings Report

Revenue: $16.512 billion (YoY +9.1%, organic +4.9%, expected $16.28 billion) ✅ Beat

EPS (Earnings Per Share): $1.21 (vs. expected $1.17, +3.7%) ✅ Beat

Guidance: Maintained · 2026 EBITDA growth of 4-8%, net capital expenditure of $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion

Stock Reaction: -1.8% (based on BMO closing price for the day)

Highlights

Premium Brands: Outside of home markets, Corona increased by 20%, Stella by 19%, and Michelob Ultra by 50%

Non-alcoholic · Beyond Beer: Non-alcoholic beer revenue increased by 35%, and Beyond Beer increased by 19%

Shareholder Returns: Increased the interim dividend from €0.15 to €0.40 per share

Mexico achieved high single-digit revenue growth, while Colombia achieved double-digit revenue growth, and record volumes were achieved in 15 markets including Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, South Africa, and India as of Q3. Third-party product transaction volume on the BEES marketplace grew by 45% to reach $1.4 billion. The nine-month cumulative EPS also increased by 22.2% to $3.40.

Lowlights

China: Volume and revenue decreased by 16.8%, and EBITDA decreased by 30.5%

United States: Revenue decreased by 1.2%, EBITDA decreased by 4.0%, and retail volume decreased by 3.1%

Margins: EBITDA margin was 36.1%, down 0.34 percentage points from a year ago

EBITDA in the Asia-Pacific region decreased by 22.4%, and Europe also saw a mid-single-digit decrease. China faced a quarter marked by extreme weather, sluggish food service channels, and inventory adjustments. The company cited increased sales and marketing investments and raw material cost pressures as reasons for the margin contraction.

What the Company Said

CEO Michel Doukeris stated that the mega-brand and mega-platform portfolio continues to resonate with consumers and that this quarter's performance is the result of a diversified business base and strategic execution. The company explained that increased sales and marketing investments and raw material cost pressures limited the growth in profit. Nevertheless, the annual outlook was maintained.

Market Reaction and Future Key Points

Despite both revenue and earnings per share exceeding expectations, the stock price fell 1.8% on the day of the announcement. It was also confirmed on the same day that volume in China decreased by 16.8% and the EBITDA margin declined by 0.34 percentage points.

We need to confirm whether Chinese inventory returns to normal levels in the fourth quarter

We must monitor whether the 3.1% decrease in U.S. retail sales continues into the fourth quarter

The key factor is whether the EBITDA margin recovers to the mid-36% range as the growth in sales and marketing expenses slows

Earnings Call Key Summary

We have summarized the key points from the $BUD earnings call.

[Bearish] China focusing on inventory liquidation: Due to weather and sluggish bar consumption, the entire industry is contracting, and the company is even reducing distribution inventory. Since next year's performance will only look clean once inventory liquidation is complete, China's figures must be monitored closely for the time being. Why UST viewed this as bearish: Because the weakness in China is dragging down overall performance. "The decline in volume in China was mostly due to industry contraction and inventory adjustments, and in consumer sales, we also underperformed amidst these unfavorable industry conditions." (Anheuser-Busch InBev management)

[Neutral] Most costs are hedged: Thanks to contracts that fix prices in advance (hedging), most of next year's costs are predictable, and the company views them as being at normal levels. However, raw materials that were not hedged have seen price increases, increasing the burden. Why UST viewed this as neutral: While there is a cost burden, most of it is protected by hedges. "As mentioned in the previous earnings release, additional burdens appeared in the unhedged portions, so we expect costs to be distributed somewhat equally between the first and second halves of the year." (Anheuser-Busch InBev management)

[Bearish] Costs weighing down U.S. profits: Despite increasing market share in the U.S., profits decreased. Significant spending occurred on World Cup marketing, and transportation costs rising due to fuel prices continue to be a burden because they were not hedged. Why UST viewed this as bearish: Because transportation costs are rising without hedges. "In the U.S., costs are increasing due to raw materials that could not be fixed in advance, the easiest example being rising transportation costs due to oil and diesel prices, and the U.S. experiences such transportation cost increase cycles every few years." (Anheuser-Busch InBev management)

[Bullish] Significant increase in interim dividend: The interim dividend was raised significantly compared to last year, and share buybacks are continuing as planned. This is a signal that ample cash has increased the capacity to return value to shareholders. Why UST viewed this as bullish: Because ample cash has allowed for a significant increase in shareholder returns. "In line with our goal to steadily increase dividends, we raised the interim dividend from 15 Euro cents per share last year to 40 Euro cents per share." (Anheuser-Busch InBev management)