실적분석 2026년 8월 10일

Alico ($ALCO) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis — Revenue Crushes Estimates, Returns to Profit, Full-Year Guidance Raised

Earnings Scorecard

Revenue: $9.04M (+7.7% YoY; estimate $2.75M) ✅ Beat

EPS: $0.29 GAAP diluted · estimate -$0.73 adjusted · not directly comparable; company does not disclose an adjusted EPS metric

Guidance: Raised — FY2026 adjusted EBITDA ~$15.0M, year-end cash ~$48.0M, net debt ~$37.0M

Stock Reaction: After-hours +2.18% ($39.91) — as of 05:43 KST, 8/11

The Positives

Revenue Surprise: Q3 revenue of $9.04M far outpaced the $2.75M estimate

Return to Profit: Net income attributable to common shareholders of $2.13M; diluted EPS of $0.29

Full-Year Guidance Raised: Lifted outlook for adjusted EBITDA, cash, and net debt simultaneously

The pivot away from citrus toward land leasing and development is beginning to show up in the numbers. Land management and other revenue accounted for the bulk of quarterly revenue, alongside roughly $10.0M in share repurchases and expanded farmland leasing. Quarter-end cash of about $55.6M secures mid-term operating runway without requiring additional asset sales — the key takeaway.

The Negatives

Sharp Drop in Adjusted EBITDA: Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $4.60M, down 76.1% YoY

Citrus Revenue Collapse: Citrus segment revenue contracted from ~$7.81M to ~$1.12M YoY

Development Monetization Is a Long Road: Coxcrew East Village is in the permitting stage; groundbreaking is possible in 2028–2029

The business model is in transition, making it hard to read the full picture from a single quarter. Nine-month cumulative revenue is down 62.4% versus the prior year, and prior-year profit figures were flattered by one-off items such as accelerated citrus depreciation. Land development has meaningful value, but the actual timing of cash inflows hinges on permitting and groundbreaking schedules.

What Management Said

Management framed the strategic transition as on plan, citing leasing income and permitting progress on development as evidence. With liquidity secured, the message is closer to: no rush on the development timetable — execution will proceed at the company's own pace.

Market Reaction and What to Watch Next

The combination of a revenue beat, return to profit, and raised full-year guidance appears to have drawn after-hours buying interest. That said, with the business in transition, qualitative metrics such as the decline in adjusted EBITDA remain mixed.

Delivery on the ~$15.0M full-year adjusted EBITDA target and year-end cash/net debt goals

Realization of lease income on the ~3,280 acres of farmland and the pace of additional land monetization

Progress on state and federal permitting for Coxcrew Grove East Village and crystallization of the groundbreaking timetable